Plague Diaries, Issue 50: May 1, 2020

Things are changing. 

Earlier today, the sky was a gorgeous blue.
By the golden hour, the clouds had started to gather.
Symbolism in the time of coronvirus...

Today, the Indiana Governor decided unveiled a plan to "reopen" our state in five stages to get us "back on track" by July 4. We (Indiana) are nearing the end of the first stage now, and Stage 2 begins on this coming Monday, May 4, and will include the lifting of essential travel restrictions, increase in social gatherings (from 10 to 25), and retail and commercial businesses being allowed to re-open at 50% capacity. I suppose to keep the vulnerable safe, those who are 65+, or in an at-risk group, are asked to stay at home. Churches and restaurants will also be permitted to re-open during Stage 2. And if everything goes according to plan, Stage 3 will start on May 24, with more restrictions loosened, and before you know it, bob's your uncle! The state will be operating at normal capacity by July 4! We'll be able to have the Indiana State Fair!Yay! The coronavirus has gone away!

Except nope, it has not. Our governor, like many others, has caved to the pressure and yes, the financial needs and fears of many, and so here we are. The state is re-opening, but COVID-19 still stalks us. Admittedly, Holcomb has emphasized that these plans and dates are subject to change, based on four "principles" (contact tracing, ICU bed/ventilator capacity, decrease in hospitalized patients, and ability to test all who show symptoms) that the state government is using to guide its decisions. So who knows? Maybe Holcomb wants to have a plan in place, at least, and if (when) everything goes back to hell in a handbasket and these four principles are compromised, he can walk back from these dates. Who knows? I just don't see how all of us getting back out and resuming our old lives--even in these stages--is going to help the situation or build an adequate amount of herd immunity. In fact, I worry that the exact opposite will happen--it will make the situation worse. But I'm neither an epidemiologist, a statistician, or even a citizen with an abiding interest in science, so maybe I'm mistaken. Anyone who knows me know how much I love to be right, but this is one instance in which I would love to be wrong. I will concede, however, it's very easy for me to take this stance--my livelihood and finances have not yet been materially damaged (although I won't be looking at my retirement account anytime soon), so it costs me nothing to scream into the void, "Stay the fuck at home!"

Locally, here in Monroe County, we have a complication that we are potentially encountering. According to a recently-released study released by Datamir, a firm which has successfully identified many hotspots up to 14 days before they emerge, has now identified Monroe County as an emerging hotspot. And thank god, it looks like our local government is taking a bit more of a conservative (weird thing to say) approach than is the state as a whole. Apparently, we are to maintain the "status quo", and the Governor's plan does not yet apply to us. Hell if I know when it will. So let's just make everything that much more confusing, shall we?

So, at the close of May 1, 2020, this is where we are, here in the humble Hoosier State. Up until now, I've been pretty proud of Holcomb and his handling of this crisis, and frankly, I have a great deal of sympathy for this poor fucker, especially now. Leaders (political, financial, and moral) are in a very difficult position, and while the winning scenario will always be the one in which the most lives are saved, the winning scenario is proving to be terribly costly, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

Be smart and stay safe, folks. Please remember, this is not over, even if the government tells you you can go to church or a restaurant or a nail salon or TJ Maxx or a party or whatever. COVID-19 didn't abide by the stay-at-home orders at any point before, and it's not going to start now.  And while you may be healthy and not at risk, you're not safe, not by a long shot, and neither are our vulnerable loved ones. As long as you possibly can, as much as you can without endangering your mental, financial, and physical well-being, stay solitary, stay safe, and stay at home.

Daily Indiana COVID-19 Counts: 

Total Number of Cases: 18,630 (up from yesterday's report of 17,985)
1062 people have died.